Nocturnal 
Vladimir Putin has warned the West that Russia is prepared to use “all weapons” in its arsenal, including nuclear ones, if it considers its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad to be under direct attack.
The Russian president made the comments at the Valdai Forum in Moscow, a gathering of international Russia experts, as first reported by the BBC and CNN. He insisted Moscow was “not threatening anyone” and was simply responding to statements from Western leaders.
“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation — in this case, we are referring to Kaliningrad, and perhaps other territories as well — the question of the Russian Federation deploying all the weapons at our country’s disposal will, of course, inevitably and immediately be on the agenda,” Putin said.
Why Kaliningrad, and why now?
Kaliningrad is a heavily militarised Russian territory wedged between Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members. According to the ABC and LBC, it’s roughly the size of the US state of Connecticut and hosts Russia’s main Baltic navy base, along with nuclear-capable Iskander missiles.
The warning follows a diplomatic note Russia sent to NATO this week, as confirmed by NATO spokesperson Allison Hart. Russian embassies across Europe, including in the UK and Ireland, put out statements claiming Moscow has “information that NATO is preparing (an) air and naval blockade of Kaliningrad”, according to the Hindustan Times. NATO has not confirmed any such blockade plan.
Hart said NATO “strongly denounce[d] the threat of force, including any irresponsible nuclear rhetoric” and insisted the alliance is “a defensive alliance” whose activities “pose no risk to any part of Russia”. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte echoed that message, urging Moscow to drop the “nuclear threats”.
A tense few months for the Baltics
The warning comes amid a run of so-called hybrid warfare incidents blamed on Russia across Poland and the Baltic states. Last week, Poland said a Russian helicopter had strayed into its airspace near Kaliningrad, while Lithuania said its population felt “constantly threatened” partly due to drones entering its airspace.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday his country was bracing for further hybrid attacks, “including serious ones”, after a drone armed with explosives was found near Ukrainian cargo planes at Leipzig airport in August.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian diplomats were simply “trying to remind the hotheads in Europe” about Moscow’s policy on the matter, pointing to recent statements from Poland and other European nations.
Putin also used his speech to address the economic toll of the war, admitting Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries had cost Russia around 1% of its GDP. Ukraine says it targeted the refineries because they help fund the Kremlin’s war effort. Putin, in turn, said Russia’s strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure were a direct response to Kyiv’s attacks on refineries and Black Sea shipping.
He also claimed Russia would be up against “an enemy twice our size” in NATO, but said the country had a “competitive advantage” in weaponry that, in his words, “no one else possesses”.
Where things stand now
For now, the exchange remains one of rhetoric rather than confrontation. NATO has formally replied to Russia’s note, reiterating its defensive posture, while Moscow continues to insist it has no plans to attack any European country. Tensions in the Baltic region, however, show no sign of easing, with further NATO exercises planned for October.
