Nocturnal 
Brazil’s presidential race is heading to a runoff after right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro pipped incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first-round vote, as first reported by the BBC.
With almost all ballots counted, Bolsonaro took around 47% of the vote to Lula’s roughly 45%, according to results reported by Business Post and the International Business Times. Bolsonaro received more than 56 million votes compared with about 53.7 million for Lula, per IBTimes figures.
Neither man crossed the 50% threshold needed to win outright, so the pair will face off again on 25 October, the Guardian confirmed in its live coverage of the count.
How the first round unfolded
The result came as a shock to pollsters. Several surveys released just before polling day, including one from CNT/MDA, had put Lula narrowly ahead, while Datafolha had also shown the incumbent with a slight edge in a hypothetical runoff, according to IBTimes. Instead, Bolsonaro comfortably outperformed expectations, as the Financial Times reported.
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is a lawyer and former senator for Rio de Janeiro. He is the son of Jair Bolsonaro, the former president who is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a plot to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula, as the Guardian has reported. The elder Bolsonaro has endorsed his son’s campaign from behind bars and is said to hope a win could help him regain his freedom.
Lula, 80, is seeking an unprecedented fourth non-consecutive term. He oversaw a period of strong economic growth and poverty reduction during his first two terms between 2003 and 2011, but was later jailed on corruption charges in 2018. That conviction was quashed after he had spent 580 days behind bars, according to the Guardian.
Speaking after Sunday’s result, Bolsonaro said voters had sent a message that Brazil wanted “change”, pointing to the nearly 56 million people who backed him, per IBTimes. His campaign has focused on crime, inflation and public debt, and he has positioned himself as more business-friendly and aligned with US President Donald Trump. Fox News described the result as part of a wider “red wave” among Trump-aligned candidates in Latin America.
What happens next
The runoff on 25 October will be a straight contest between Bolsonaro and Lula, with the winner taking office on 5 January 2027, according to the Guardian. Brazilian presidents are limited to two consecutive terms, meaning a Lula victory would rule him out of standing again in 2030.
One state to watch closely is Minas Gerais, a mining and agricultural region of 21 million people that the Guardian describes as Brazil’s bellwether. No candidate has won the presidency since the 1980s without carrying Minas Gerais first — Jair Bolsonaro won it by 1.7 million votes in 2018, while Lula reclaimed it by fewer than 50,000 votes in 2022, both times going on to win nationally.
Markets are reportedly expecting to respond positively to Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-anticipated showing, on the assumption that his government would pursue more market-friendly economic policies, according to IBTimes. With nearly 159 million Brazilians eligible to vote, the outcome is being closely watched well beyond Latin America’s largest economy.
